Winning
the Oil End Game
Innovations for
Profits, Jobs, and Security
2004
By
Amory B. Lovins, E. Kyle Datta, Odd-Even Bustnes, Jonathan G. Koomey, and Nathan G. Glasgow
http://www.oilendgame.com
ABSTRACT (from the author): This
independent, peer-reviewed synthesis for American business and military
leaders charts a roadmap for getting the United States completely,
attractively, and profitably off oil. Our strategy integrates four
technological ways to displace oil: using oil twice as efficiently,
then substituting biofuels, saved natural gas, and, optionally hydrogen.
Fully applying today’s best efficient technologies in a doubled-GDP
2025 economy would save half the projected U.S. oil use at half its
forecast cost per barrel. Non-oil substitutes for the remaining consumption
would also cost less than oil. These comparisons conservatively assigned
zero value to avoiding oil’s many “externalized” costs, including
costs incurred by military insecurity, rivalry and developing countries,
pollution, and depletion. The vehicle improvements and other saving
required needn’t be as fast as those achieved after the 1979 oil
shock.
The route we suggest
for the transition beyond oil will expand customer choice and wealth,
and will be led by business for profit. We propose novel public policies
to accelerate this transition that are market-oriented without taxes
and innovation-driven without mandates. A $180-billion investment
over the next decade will yield $130-billion annual savings by 2025;
revitalize the automotive, truck, aviation, and hydrocarbon industries;
create a million jobs in both industrial and rural areas; rebalance
trade; make the United States more secure, prosperous, equitable
and environmentally healthy; encouraged other countries to get off
oil too; and make the world more developed, fair and peaceful.
Copyright © 2004 Rocky Mountain Institutee
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